Keeping watch on Trendwest / WorldMark by Wyndham

Thursday, March 24, 2005

A successful eBay sale -- and a keen market valuation

I previously wrote about eBay auction #6516820409 that was selling for $1/unit. I went back and found that it has sold for $6,301 -- that's $1.05/unit.

Most interesting was the bidding:

BidderAU$ BidDate
5283dave (0)$6,00013-Mar-05 08:06:21 AEDST
tlcbusconsult (26)$6,20116-Mar-05 15:50:59 AEDST
havalah2 (123)$6,30116-Mar-05 15:50:46 AEDST

Being an eBay fan, here's my analysis:
  • 5283dave put in a bid for only $6000
  • havalah2 used a Snipe utility (eg ESnipe) to place a maximum bid of $6,201 8 seconds before then end -- using a typical eBay strategy of adding $1 to win a tied bid. This would have pushed the winning bid to $6,100 or thereabouts
  • tlcbusconsult sniped 5 seconds before the end, but only for a maximum of $6,201 which meant that havalah2's earlier and higher bid won for $6,301
An aside about sniping

It's worth mentioning that sniping is a great way to use eBay. In a sensible world, everybody has a maximum price they're willing to pay, and the person with the highest maximum price wins. However, human nature sends this theory out the window.

In a lot of eBay auctions, people place a bid (eg $10). They then get outbid, so place another bid (eg $20). They keep doing this until they either get top-bid, or run out of budget. Next, person B comes along and does the same. This results in a bidding war which is good for the seller, and the whole reason why auctions work well.

However, enter the Snipe concept. What if the original bidder bid $10 and was the top-bid, with nobody competing. They'd keep their bid there, with no need to increase. Then, a few seconds before the end of the auction, somebody else could come along and bid $15, thereby winning the top-bid and not allowing enough time for the first person to raise their bid. This is the fault of the first person, who should have told eBay their maximum desired bid rather than just bidding enough to win at the moment. If they did so, then they'll either win or the item will sell for more than their budget -- either which should make them happy.

The result is that the Sniper paid less for the win than in an open bidding war. Good for the buyer, not so good for the seller!

Back to the auction

Another interesting fact is that tlcbusconsult was willing to pay $6,201 for the 6000 credits. A bit of searching on eBay reveals that tlcbusconsult is currently trying to sell WorldMark 6000 credits for $7,400 on eBay in auction #6519327885.

Indeed, tlcbusconsult has previously sold 6000 credits for $8,200 on eBay in auction #6510672925. If this person is willing to purchase for $6,200 then it means that the current market for points lies between $6,200 and $7,400 for 6000 credits.

This should give an indication for people wishing to cash-out of their "investment".

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